Building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team requires strategy, knowledge, and calculated risk-taking. Understanding player consistency, their past performances, and potential for the upcoming season are all crucial factors.
Key Players and Expectations
Joel Embiid, a dominant force in the league, continues to be a top fantasy pick. Projections suggest he will average more than 60 fantasy points per game. Last season, he averaged 61 fantasy points per game, but his durability remains a concern. Embiid has never played more than 68 games in a season and managed only 39 games last year.
Nikola Jokic, by contrast, stands out for his reliability. He played 79 games last season and has never played fewer than 69 games in his career, making him a dependable cornerstone for any fantasy team.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis, both key players for the Lakers, also present interesting cases. James, who will turn 40 this season, played 71 games last year. However, his average over the previous three seasons was significantly lower at 52 games. Similarly, Davis played 76 games last season but averaged just 44 games over the previous three seasons. Despite their high production when healthy, their recent histories of missed games pose risks.
Challenges and Risks
Player availability is a recurring theme in fantasy basketball. For example, Ja Morant, who missed 73 games last season due to suspension and injury, has an impressive stat line with averages of 26.7 PPG, 7.5 APG, and 5.8 RPG over the past three seasons. Now 25 years old, Morant's potential is tantalizing, yet managers must consider his availability.
Kevin Durant, heading into his 18th NBA season at age 36, played 75 games last season. His extensive experience and high performance levels are significant, but the wear and tear of nearly two decades in the league cannot be ignored.
Kyrie Irving presents another high-risk, high-reward scenario. Over the last five seasons, he averaged 26.7 PPG, 49.3 FG%, 39.9 3P%, and 91.2 FT%—stellar numbers for any player. Nonetheless, his average of 44.2 games per season during that period and his rankings—22nd in fantasy points per game versus 47th in total fantasy points—reflect his inconsistency due to frequent absences.
Zion Williamson also embodies the risk-reward dilemma. He posted impressive stats with averages of 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons. Yet, he played only 90 of a possible 236 regular season games during this time. Last season, he had a career-high of 70 games, and a late-season streak saw him averaging 27.1 PPG over ten games. His potential is undeniable, but his injury history is concerning.
Strategic Choices
Fantasy managers must weigh these risks against potential rewards. Kawhi Leonard, who played 68 games last season and finished with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league, is another player whose health must be monitored. His knee issues caused him to miss 12 of the Clippers’ last 14 games, including the playoffs.
Overall, constructing a successful fantasy basketball team goes beyond picking top performers. It demands a comprehensive evaluation of a player's health, consistency, and past performance trends. By balancing these factors, managers can better navigate the intricacies of fantasy basketball, aiming for a well-rounded roster built to last through the season's challenges.