At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins faced another crushing defeat, blowing a three-run lead to lose 4-3 against the Cleveland Guardians. The game turned in the bottom of the eighth inning when Griffin Jax surrendered a game-deciding two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo.
The defeat extended the Twins' woeful stretch, having now lost 18 of their last 27 games. This slump has significantly impacted their postseason prospects, reducing their lead for the third AL wild-card spot to just 1 1/2 games. FanGraphs had their postseason odds at 95.4% as recently as September 5 but has since seen those odds dwindle to 76.4%.
A deeper look at their recent performance shows a troubling trend. In 12 of their last 27 games, the Twins have failed to score more than three runs, sporting a batting average of .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. When the bases are empty, they fare even worse, batting .272, placing them among the bottom four in the league.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking," remarked pitcher Pablo López. "Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
The bullpen, once a source of stability, has faltered during this critical period. Over the first 123 games, they maintained a respectable 3.84 ERA, ranking tenth in the league in win probability added at plus-3.41. However, over the last 27 games, their ERA has ballooned to 5.47, and their win probability added has plummeted to a league-worst minus-2.75.
The demanding schedule hasn't helped either; the Twins have played 17 games in the last 18 days. The rotation has struggled as well, posting a 6.07 ERA in this stretch and averaging just 4.38 innings per start.
"If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not," explained manager Rocco Baldelli. "We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
Baldelli's plea for a complete game performance resonates with a team that has often let leads slip away. In five of their last 18 losses, the Twins held the lead in the seventh inning or later. They have also been tied in the seventh inning or later in two other defeats.
"We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," added Baldelli. "We have to put nine innings together."
Reliever Griffin Jax echoed these sentiments, speaking to the emotional toll of the recent losses. "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," he admitted.
In a bid to bolster their pitching staff, the Twins recently claimed left-hander Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin brings with him a 4.86 ERA from 16 starts and nine relief appearances this season.
"We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have?" said Derek Falvey, the Twins' Chief Baseball Officer. "He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
The road doesn't get easier for the Twins as other teams in the race continue to perform well. The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are just two games behind in the standings. However, the Twins hold pivotal tiebreakers over both teams. While the Tigers have gone an impressive 23-10 in their last 33 games, the Twins have struggled to find consistency.
On a positive note, there are signs of life in the offense with Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa going a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a home run this month. Additionally, Max Kepler is expected to make a return soon, potentially providing the much-needed spark for the Twins.
As the season winds down, the Twins find themselves at a crossroads, needing to muster their remaining strength to secure the wild-card spot and extend their season into October. The next few games will be critical as they navigate this tightly contested race.