As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field this afternoon, an intriguing matchup is on the horizon, set to commence at 2:20 PM ET. This game sees the Diamondbacks stepping onto the field as slight money line favorites at -106, a testament to their recent resilience and performance.
Pitching Duel: Steele vs. Nelson
Taking the mound for the Cubs will be Justin Steele, who boasts a commendable 2.71 ERA across 14 starts this season. Steele's record of 2-3 doesn't fully capture his effectiveness, noted in the eight quality starts he's produced. His most recent outing was stellar, pitching seven scoreless innings. While Steele's home ERA is slightly higher at 3.16 compared to his 2.96 road ERA, he's been a reliable presence for the Cubs on either turf. Predictions suggest Steele will achieve six strikeouts today and is anticipated to allow fewer runs compared to his opponent.
Opposing Steele is Ryne Nelson of the Diamondbacks. With a 6-6 record and a 4.99 ERA, Nelson's stats are more varied. He carries a WHIP of 1.42 and a batting average against of .296. However, Nelson has shown consistency, managing six straight starts without surrendering more than three earned runs. Projections indicate Nelson will likely secure four strikeouts in today's game.
Diamondbacks' Road Resilience
The Diamondbacks enter this clash with a 49-48 overall record. Statistically, they stand second in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by seven games. Their recent form on the road has been impressive, boasting a 4-1 record in their last five away games and an identical 4-1 run line record during this span. The Arizona lineup, averaging five runs per game—the second-best in MLB—indicates a robust offensive force.
Key contributors to the Diamondbacks' offense include Christian Walker and Ketel Marte, with 22 and 19 homers respectively. Despite a recent 8-7 loss to the Blue Jays, where they squandered a seven-run lead, the Diamondbacks have rebounded with two consecutive road victories. This resilience is mirrored in their overall run line record of 49-48 and a notable over/under record of 52-42. Arizona games this season have averaged 9.8 runs, often surpassing the over/under line of 7.5 runs.
Cubs' Home Strength
Turning to the Cubs, they hold a 47-51 record and currently sit fifth in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 8.5 games. However, recent performances have been encouraging. The Cubs have gone 7-3 in their last ten games, including a solid 4-1 record in their last five home games at Wrigley. Their divisional record stands at 12-21, yet they fare well as home underdogs with a 9-5 tally this season.
On the offensive side, the Cubs average 4.2 runs per game with an overall batting average of .235. Players like Nico Hoerner, hitting .378 over his last nine games, and Christopher Morel, with three homers in his last eight games, highlight some of the brighter spots in their lineup.
What's at Stake
The game's over/under is set at 7.5 runs, a figure both teams frequently surpass—84.5% of Diamondbacks games and 67.3% of Cubs games exceed this line. The Diamondbacks boast a 6-4 record when the over/under is positioned at 7.5, whereas the Cubs have a 12-10 record in such scenarios. Both teams are currently on three-game streaks of hitting the over line, hinting at a potentially high-scoring encounter.
In this tightly contested battle, the prediction leans towards a narrow victory for the Diamondbacks with a score of 5-4. However, with both teams showing considerable recent form and competitive spirit, fans are set for an exciting afternoon of baseball at Wrigley Field.